There are three powerful groups that support the Bush administration and would happily cheerlead the insanity of going to war with Iran. The first is the obvious political power that the Israeli lobbyists have on our politicians and the so-called "Israel-firsters" embedded inside our departments of State and Defense that enable this neocon agenda.
The second group is the Saudi lobby. On a theological basis, fundamentalist Wahabbi Sunni Muslims don't care very much for their fundamentalist Shi'ite Muslim cousins across the Persian Gulf. On a strategic and economic basis, the Saudis would benefit hugely from the resulting chaos in the oil market.
The third group that would cheerlead more war is the fundamentalist evangelical Christian lobby here in the United States. It's clear from the messages coming from many of these organizations that they believe in a clash of civilizations in the broader Middle East is not only desired, but mandated by Biblical prophecy.
Christians United For Israel
It is nearly impossible to even discuss the access and influence that Israel has on the United States government. When professors Mearsheimer and Walt simply asked the obvious question in their recent essay, "The Israel Lobby," they were smeared and called anti-Semetic.
Mearsheimer and Walt include Evangelical Christians in their framing of what constitutes the Israel lobby, but I have chosen to identify them as a seperate influence in my own analysis. It's not that I disagree with the professors for their inclusion -- groups like CUFI are militant and frankly, dangerous -- but I seperate them because as a group, Christians are not all irrational end-timers and are generally more concerned with domestic social policy, rather than U.S. foreign policy. The militant support for Israel are shades of gray that vary from church to church even among the fundamentalist Christian adherents.
Americans should be made aware of the power and influence all of these groups wield, though. While the Saudis influence the Bush administration primarily through energy sector lobbys, Israel lobbies through defense contractors and religious groups. They all operate much like huge corporate and defense lobbyist organizations with retired government and military personnel on their boards. They have nearly unlimited money for media campaigns and political donations for their candidates. This keeps the American public's perceptions about the Middle East in a well-maintained media bubble.
We Don't Speak To Evil
The history of diplomacy between the United States and Iran has been non-existent during the lives of many young Americans and certainly spanning the careers of many people within the U.S. government for about the last 30 years. Despite this, many Americans would be very surprised to know that Iran supported the United States after the terrorist attacks of September 11th. You have to step outside the U.S. media bubble to hear this, though. Free your mind, Neo.
Not only did the Iranian people support the U.S. after 9/11, holding mass candle-lit vigils and moments of sympathetic silence for the victims, the Iranian government even materially supported our military efforts in Afghanistan. If you wish to understand the recent history of US-Iran relationships and interactions, listen to this BBC radio 4 presentation with Gordon Corera, "Mixed Messages." Spend a half-hour to understand what is happening in the U.S. now, fomented by hardcore neocons in the Bush administration. It's clear that all the talking points by neocons now were created by the actions of those same warmongers over the last five years.
Connect The Dots
A number of seemingly unconnected data sets seems to point to an imminent war with Iran. While I feel like Mel Gibson's character in the "Conspiracy Theory" movie pointing out these things, I urge you to check the very public events that are happening now. It's not some secret. It's happening in front of your face, even if your local TV news or favorite McCableNews channel is not reporting on it.
The Bush administration, on its own, has made public statements for regime change in Iran since the infamous "Axis of Evil" declaration, and most recently to the world leaders in the speech given to the United Nations by George Bush.
The Congress has been generating reports to justify an attack on Iran. WMD and Terrorist Support. Although reports are authored by neocons, ex-staffer of John Bolton, they influence Congress. Even if the IAEA disputes the findings of the neocons Congressional work, the reponse is to then dismiss the U.N. and its agencies. Democrats will not stop a war with Iran.
Bush is selling the War on Terror to our domestic military organizations. View WH video of his 09/29 address to the Retired Officers Association gathering.
The president sells the happiness of the recently leaked National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq on the radio. Listen to the propaganda here. Go on listen. Bush's neocon logic is Benny Hill funny, if he wasn't drinking his own kool-aid.
I call this section The Blurring because the Bush administration has repeatedly blurred any discussion of specifics, like how to solve specific problems in Afghanistan or Iraq with their multi-trillion dollar agenda on the so-called broader Middle East and their War on Terror. It should come as no shock to anyone when Bush refers to the death and destruction in Iraq by saying, "I like to tell people when the final history is written on Iraq, it will look like just a comma ..."
The troubling history of politically driven and Rovian foreign policies have one common denominator. Some events are orchestrated to keep and maintain political power in the U.S, not to react to any reality of threat to National Security.
Karl Rove promised his GOP supporters an October Surprise for election victory. Was he teasing his loyal Republicon serfs with some new war with Iran? There does seem to be a disconnected callousness with these meglomaniacs that points toward a plan that Americans will stop complaining about Iraq, if we are engaged in a larger war, the next war, with Iran.
On Thursday, October 5th, people all over the United States, in big cities and small towns, are staging a mass protest against the Bush administration. It's likely there is already some chapter near you with which you can join up. Find a local chapter near you, or simply start your own.
Call your friends and neighbors. Meet up somewhere publicly.
Call your fellow classmates. Skip school for peace.
Call your friends from church. Pray publicly for peace.
Talk to your co-workers. Take a sick day off work.
Call your boss on Thursday morning:
Yeah. What's up, Joe?
I can't come into work today. I'm really sick.
Really? What's wrong?
I'm sick of the Bush administration starting new wars before they finish the last one.
In some of my previous blog entries about Iraq, you may have heard me complain about a number of things. After spending some time researching things, I'll post those entries with links to Congressional reports, or interview transcripts, or links to audio, and video, and other websites saying the same thing. I do that because I want to cite some reference for my outrage. I don't want people thinking that I'm just making this stuff up.
I've come to realize that many people don't have the same passion about our society, politics, or goverment institutions. It's hardwork trying to understand and find clues to why the world is all fucked up. It's likely most people simply don't have the time to read anything, either. I try to stay focussed and on topic. I'm getting better at writing shorter sentences, too.
About a week ago, I spent several hours trying to understand the testimony of Stuart Bowen, the Special Investigator General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) at some Congressional hearing. I pawed through hundreds of pages of related PDFs trying to understand the data. To add insult to injury, one of his PDF reports had all the fucking spreadsheet pages sidewise -- reading that for an hour gave me headache and a sore neck.
My specific research on that day was to try to figure out why Iraq was a total clusterfuck. Now, after watching the testimony of retired U.S. Marine Colonel Hammes, an expert on counter-insurgency, I have a better idea of how and why things went wrong in Iraq. That's a first step to moving forward.
The basic concept that the Bush administration outlined in their "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq" isn't really flawed. The problem is that theyre not doing it, or doing it half-assed, or they may have waited too long and now the problem is 100x worse to solve. "Clear-Hold-Build" is a decent strategy for counter-insurgency.
I urge everyone to read the National Strategy for Victory in Iraq report. It's only 38 pages. It has a pretty red-white-and-blue title page. It's more than 500 pages shorter than the 9/11 Commission report. We all want victory in Iraq. We all support the troops and want to bring them home.
There are several things that the current administration has done in the past and is still doing that actually makes them defeat their own plan. The "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq" report was developed by the National Security Council and published November 30th, 2005.
Hello?! Why didn't we have this fucking plan implemented from the get-go? It's not like the PNAC neocons hadn't been drooling over the broader Middle East since Reagan was in office. It's not like the Bush/Cheney administraton didn't discuss the Iraq invasion during the first week they were in office, in January of 2001.
Not only that, but try to go to White House web site and conveniently find this report now. The fact that is was only an after-thought to invading Iraq, and the fact that it hasn't even been a year and you have to search the White House website for this report now, and the fact that the White House message has switched from Victory in Iraq back to War on Terror for the upcoming elections, speaks far louder than any Lincoln Group or Karl Rove propaganda.
Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld also come from the far-right wing ideology that government should be privatized. Not a small goverment, abolish the DEA, Libertarian model -- a fat cat, big government, corrupt corporate model. Even hardcore Libertarians believe that government, not corporations, should provide for the national defense.
The video clip above is a 5-6 minute interview between MSNBC's Keith Obermann and documentary film director Robert Greenwald. His film, "Iraq For Sale" seems to detail an extraordinary basic problem with operations in Iraq. By the way, when I was researching defense contract spreadsheets from SIGIR, I was struck by the corruption, but I was just amazed at the volume of contracts. I think it was about 8500 seperate contracts.
We know that the current fearmongering campaign is political. This election season spurred on the immigration idiocy and more 9/11 speeches. I'm surprised the terror alert level hasn't yet been raised, but then we still have a month to go ...
If you wish to explore the political cronyism of BushWorld in Iraq angle -- or "Good Job, Brownie" -- which is only one-step seperated from the corporate ties, then get a copy of Washington Post reporter Rajiv Chandrasekaran's new book, "Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq's Green Zone"
Finding truth in the Bush administration is like stamping your foot on mercury. It just spreads away into smaller disconnected globs, each just as poisonous to ingest.
However difficult, or even embarassing it may be to connect some of these mercurial dots to get some insight concerning Iraq, it should be one of the most important things Americans should be discussing amongst themselves and ultimately demanding of their representatives in Washington.
Let the debate not be a fool's merry-go-round of Republican versus Democrat, or even Hawk versus Dove. The United States military is in Iraq, today. Unless and until the Iraqi leaders tell us to leave, George Bush has already stated, "We'll be in Iraq so long as I'm president."
The short four-minute video above has compiled highlights of the testimony given on Monday by three retired military commanders at the "Oversight Hearing on the Planning and Conduct of the War in Iraq." I've already initially opined on how important I feel this hearing was and why. You should read the bios and submitted statements of these experts (1,2,3) to judge their qualifications and sincerity.
You can also view the entire hearing (about 2 hours) thanks to C-Span. While it is clear that each witness supported the idea of replacing the Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, and also give excoriating examples for their conclusions, they also lamented on the lack of oversight and action by the current Congress.
"The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny."
Unfortunately, politics does play a major role in moving forward. The recent declassification of a small portion of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) by the Bush administration only happened because it had already been leaked to the media, primarily because some people were outraged that the Bush administration had been sitting on it for almost six months for political purposes.
The report is an embarassment to White House policy and runs contrary to the Rovian message that Republicans will keep you safe. I don't know if Democrats will keep you any safer -- if you happen to be a person who has sealed yourself up in your basement with duct-tape and plastic sheeting while memorizing verses of Biblical Revelations by candlelight -- but I do know that the political apathy of your neighbors may allow things in our country to continue in the same irrational fashion.
Congressional oversight concerning Iraq is practically non-existent. Congress has been using Iraq (and 9/11 frankly) for political purposes, but has failed to look at the situation in Iraq with any honesty. This "let's not talk about this seriously" attitude has evolved over the last five years because of the obvious scandals of which we're all too familiar and don't need repeating. Or, maybe they do need repeating. Afterall, while we argue here in the United States, people in Iraq -- including our military -- only get to bleed.
Even Condi Rice admits mistakes were made. The President has admitted there was no connection between al-Qaeda and Iraq. Fine. Whatever. That's like admitting you robbed a bank, after the red dye-pack has exploded in your face and exclamed the obvious, as you crash the get-away car into the police station.
Here's a better question for people to ask. Why has the Senate Select Commitee on Intelligence chairman, Pat Roberts (R-KS), been dragging his feet and making excuses for years on completing an investigation into the pre-war intelligence on Iraq? It's been such an under-reported but ridiculous stonewalling that some organizations, like Think Progress, has been able to compile and publish a damn timeline of obsfucation and cover-up.
Hello? Look, if we can't figure out how we got where we are in Iraq, we can't move forward with any clarity or genuine purpose.
My biggest fear for my country is that the same politcal reasons and neocon exclamations by Bush, and Cheney, and Bolton, and other pundits in the media, and warmongers buried into the government establishment are trying to sell the same story for yet another war, likely with Iran, this election. Maybe they'll postpone a war with Iran for the 2008 election season.
Either way, we barely know the facts concerning the failures in Afghanistan before we launched off into war with Iraq at the time, so, why should I support a war with Iran before we even have the courage to look in the mirror as a country concerning the failures in Iraq?
Don't comfort yourself in denial of the insane possibility, or of the obvious stupidity of war with Iran. The people in charge right now have not shown themselves to act rationally in the past, they have conspired and lied the big lies, and there are other players in the global picture that could react and provide the needed or desired impetus for yet another, and possibly more catastrophic war.
You may wonder why this report was leaked. I believe it was leaked because had it not been leaked, the politicians would have kept it classified until after the November elections, so they could continue the Rovian sham. I haven't read the report, so, I'll save further comment until I do read it.
We're not leaving Iraq anytime soon. In fact, the continuing clusterfuck in Iraq that the Bush administration has created has pushed the timeframe of withdrawing troops from Iraq even further. One expert witness on counter-insurgency said, "a decade."
My own conclusion that the only beneficiaries of the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld "stay the course" gimmick in Iraq were al-Qaeda and Iran were verified by this expert testimony.
Despite my opposition for the Iraq war before it began -- mainly because even a casual observer of intelligence, like myself, knew the claims Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice were putting out into the media echo chamber were ridiculous -- I'm a realist, not a total pacifist. I'm anti-war. I think military aggression is not a desirable foreign policy for any country, let alone my own.
At the same, as much sympathy as I have for Cindy Sheehan and other people in the anti-war movement, I feel it no longer applies to Iraq. The time for anti-war demonstrations is before the next war happens, not after we've completely FUBARed the country and occupied it for over three years.
To leave Iraq before some stability is established would only compound the original Bush administration war crime. It's also strategic and economic suicide given the nature of the politics of the Middle East. If the Iraq government asks us to get out, though, we should go.
If the anti-war movement is to have any real impact, it should focus on outing the neocons and warmongering agents who want a larger war. These groups have the ear of power in Washington. Sure, we're addicted to oil. We're also addicted to Israel, or the so-called Holy Land. We're also addicted to powerful born-again Christians who dream of their rapture when the end-times, as described in Revelations, takes place. We need to seperate politics and U.S. foreign policy from religion, if we wish to survive as a species on planet Earth.
There is only one habitable Earth, so far. If we allow religious fundamentalists from Christian, Jewish or Islamic sects who conveniently deny their monotheistic tradition have the same God, also control vast tradtional militaries or asymetric armies of terrorists, we are all clearly doomed. I suggest that the anti-war movement fight the real enemy before it is too late.
Now the good news
Even if the political machine of Republicons is too great to overcome this election season, some Dumbocrats are having some unofficial oversight hearings and bringing testimony into our public eyes and ears. If you want military leaders to testify under oath at an official Congressional hearing, you'll need to vote for the politician in your district who will have the pair of political balls to do that in the next session of Congress.
Some Republicons have been so absolutely disgusted with the Bush/Cheney administration on issues of torture or civil rights, they may deserve your vote. Being Libertarian, I'm hoping you vote for your local Libertarians and also for some Democrats to take some control of this criminal Congress. One way or another, we need to stop this good-old-boy network of politicians covering each other's asses.
We need some truth, not Rovian political slogans or McFoxNews, in order to deal with Iraq rationally and successfully. Staying the course or Bashing Bush is not helpful in the short term. Congress needs re-staffing. Only American voters can do that. Once that's done, maybe some truth will be revealed, and things can be changed. I'll conclude with general Batiste's quote:
I challenge the American people to get informed and speak out. Remember that the Congress represents and works for the people. Congressional oversight committees have been strangely silent for too long, and our elected officials must step up to their responsibilities or be replaced. This is not about partisan politics, but rather what is good for our country. Our November elections are crucial. Every American needs to understand the issues and cast his or her vote. I believe that one needs to vote for the candidate who understands the issues and who has the moral courage to do the harder right rather than the easier wrong. I for one will continue to speak out until there is accountability, until the American people establish momentum, and until our Congressional oversight committees kick into action. Victory in Iraq is fundamental and we cannot move forward until accountability is achieved. Thank you.